The 2015-2016 season hasn’t gone quite according to plan for the Houston Rockets.
This is probably the understatement of the century, but after a season in which the Rockets made the Western Conference Finals — even though one could argue that the Rockets overperformed last season — fighting for one of the last playoff spots isn’t what Daryl Morey and the rest of the Rockets’ organization expected.
But all of this has been discussed ad nauseam. The Rockets’ poor performance has been a season-long story, and it’s time to figure out what the team could do to improve for next season, as this one is probably a lost cause.
Fortunately for the Rockets, one of the solutions is a 21-year-old center already on the roster.
Dwight Howard: Age 22-29, 30
The graphs above detail some of the problem with the Rockets. Dwight Howard isn’t the lone problem in Houston, but allocating the amount of resources that a team would need in order to sign Howard might not be the best course of action. His block percentage, rebounding percentage and usage percentage have all declined, and although his true shooting percentage has remained as high as it ever was, the fact that it isn’t higher given his reduction in usage could be cause for concern.
Clint Capela is a 21-year-old center from Switzerland, and he was thought to be a long-term project when he was drafted two seasons ago. While there’s certainly some areas for improvement, he’s already showing he’s a viable replacement for if (or more likely, when) Howard leaves this summer.
Clint Capela ranks among the league
The rankings above are where Capela stands among forwards and centers under 25 who’ve played in enough minutes to qualify for the leaderboard, per Basketball-Reference.com. Capela is already one of the best shot-blockers among all qualifying players, not just those under 25, and does most other things well that the modern center is asked to do.
Capela is not only a good shot-blocker, but is one of the better rim protectors in the league, according to Nylon Calculus’ rim protection data (which was last updated 3/8). Centers in today’s game need to be able to protect the rim, guard on the perimeter at an acceptable level and end possessions by grabbing the tough rebound, something Capela does better than almost anybody else in the league.
Capela grabs 21.9 percent of available defensive rebounds, a good but not great number. However, Capela grabs 51.2 percent of his contested rebounds, the seventh-highest mark in the league (contested rebound percentage is contested rebounds divided by total rebounds, as defined by NBA.com).
Offensively, Capela doesn’t do much outside of crashing the glass. One of the things he has shown, in a limited sample size, is the ability to finish in the pick-and-roll. Capela scores 1.11 points per possessions (PPP) in the pick-and-roll this year, putting him in the 72nd percentile among qualifying big men in the league, per Synergy.
Make no mistake, Capela isn’t near the player Howard is at this point in their respective careers. The other part of this equation is the salary cap, though, as Howard makes a significantly higher percentage of the Rockets’ cap, and is set to be a free agent this summer:
If Howard opts out of his contract (which would make the most sense for him in terms of money), the Rockets will have around $47 million on the books this summer, before salary cap holds and non-guaranteed contracts, according to Spotrac.com. Letting Howard walk would allow the Rockets to sign a maximum free agent to pair with James Harden.
The money the Rockets would gain from inserting Capela for Howard would also allow the Rockets the opportunity to upgrade on the wing. While every team will be putting all of their eggs in the Kevin Durant basket (and rightfully so), Nicolas Batum would be an excellent upgrade on the wing for the Rockets (Kent Bazemore, Courtney Lee and Jerryd Bayless are also free agents this summer that could work in Houston). Adding a shooter capable of defending and taking secondary ball-handling duties could alleviate even more pressure on Harden, making him an even more lethal option on offense.
In order to get back to a true contender in the West (or as close as anyone can get to the Warriors), the Rockets need to bolster the bench, and using the money saved from Howard would be useful. Trevor Ariza is a completely serviceable player next to Harden, but Marcus Thornton, Josh Smith, Corey Brewer and others that have played for Houston this year have all disappointed.
All of this stems from Houston potentially letting Howard walk for nothing, a scary scenario for the Rockets. For whatever headaches Howard brings with his personality and teenage-like ability to change moods on a whim, he’s still one of the better big men in the league. To let him walk for cap space in a time where almost every team will have enough room to compete for free agents isn’t ideal.
But in order for the Rockets to return to the top of the Western Conference, letting him walk and inserting a center (who will be 22 years old at the beginning of next season) might be the best thing to do.
Stats through games played on March 26, 2016
The post Clint Capela is potential long-term solution at center appeared first on Today's FastBreak.